How do we Boost Birth Rates?
A simple diagnosis
Call me basic, but my theory of fertility can be condensed to 6 bullet points:
Once women are in control of their fertility, they only procreate if they expect rewards - whether that is personal fulfillment or social approval. Thus any analysis must consider what gives people pleasure and status, as well as their outside options.
People are more likely to have kids if it’s FUN - relative to alternatives. As entertainment-technology improves, it generates a tantalising menu of ways to spend our lives. Babies must then tussle - in this dynamic trade-off.
Economic and housing incentives from governments could encourage more births, but these must outcompete alternatives, which are ever more alluring (especially for women!). Government would need to offer more (and more) to compensate for parents’ massive, irreversible investments, where are the returns are uncertain, yet the adjustment costs are high!
Community comes into play. If everyone else has kids, this shifts expectations and creates club goods. Families organise barbecues and trips to the seaside - sharing the care, while revelling in amusements. As a new dad remarked to me,
“I took Jack to a local church that has a soft play, bumped into a friend and his baby, met an engineer mum and fellow cycling enthusiast, and suddenly we’re all just mates! Everyone had a great time!
But the odds of that being a reliable occurrence, and there being enough fellow parents who you vibe with, get worse when fewer people have kids. Negative feedback loop!”
Films could make parenting seem more desirable - a pathway to love, fulfilment, status and social approval. Visualise this:
That said.. cultural engineering is extremely difficult in the 21st century: in this age of infinite personalisation, people can swipe past anything they dislike. Preaching is strictly limited to the choir.
The rise of singles and solitude interact with all the above, as it’s much harder to raise a child alone and doing so might hurt one’s dating prospects. Even if late 30s eventually find love, the reproductive window is much smaller. Cash incentives can’t trump biology.
While there’s no silver bullet, anything that addresses 1-6 would probably help. And although my theory is global, it interacts with local factors. Interventions will be most effective if they target country-specific binding constraints. Italy’s young adults are daunted by precarity, Koreans are highly polarised, while Egyptians keep their gender-segregated distance.
My qualitative research has taught me one thing: culture is malleable! So surely this issue is fixable! Looking forward to learning from brilliant minds innovating in this space. Questions and critique are always welcome!
Curious to hear more? I discussed these conundrums on the BBC’s Today Programme, 54 minutes in.
My Essays on Fertility
Relationship frictions
What Prevents & What Drives Gendered Ideological Polarisation?
Ghosting the Patriarchy: Female Empowerment and the Crisis of Masculinity
Intensive parenting and the educational arms race
What caused East Asia's rapid fall in fertility? (over the 1960s and 70s)
Fertility is a collective action problem. Can it be tackled with taxation?
The cultural element here is so strong. I'm a millennial, and aside from a handful of Mormons I know, I feel like people my age fell into two categories: those who didn't go to college and had kids young, often without the benefits of marriage and financial security, and those who did go to college and had kids in their mid to late 30s or not at all. This divide is so stark, I feel like a lot of people unconsciously internalized the idea that having kids before a certain age, or even having kids at all, was low status. When none of your friends have children, you correctly interpret that having children will isolate you and change a lot of your social relationships for the worse. It all just feels like such an uphill climb. I've known my whole life that I wanted to be a mother, and even I didn't manage to have my first kid until I was 37!
I would characterize having and raising children as an expression of optimism about the future of the country, a joyous loving joint project between two partners who support each other, but not necessarily something "fun". If society wants more children, it has to create an economic environment that supports families.
I came from a large family so spent 10+ years supporting my mother and parenting younger siblings (while going to school and eventually holding part-time jobs). My conclusion--and the reason that I did not have children--is that taking care of children involves a tremendous amount of exhausting, tedious, dirty, drudgery. Raising children is an act of pure love for the child, a supportive partner, and the family unit. Ideally both parents are doing something 'fun' like working at an interesting job and splitting the physically and emotionally demanding work of raising children and turning them into participating citizens who can hold a job.
BTW, there was talk of putting a $1,000 tax break in one of the recent bills being debated in Congress. That would not cover a month of child care. The cost of having a child from age 0 to age 17 (no college) ranges from $200,000-300,000, so having a child means really really budgeting and giving up luxuries. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/090415/cost-raising-child-america.asp