Why has Fertility Plummeted? Insights from Hong Kong

Why is fertility declining?

Conservatives often lay blame on “over-educated women”, privileging their careers. Progressives, meanwhile, emphasise women’s burdens. Since men and the state provide so little support, motherhood is an unbearable hit. Right and left both assume that men would love to have more kids, but fertility is being dragged down by women.

I’m not convinced. Actually, we need to ask “Why don’t men want so many kids?”.

My answer is two-fold. First, cultural liberalisation means that we live in a world of endless opportunities for entertainment, status and advancement. Kids can be hugely fulfilling but this expensive project now faces stiff competition. Only 26% of Americans say that having children is important for a fulfilling life.

Second, parenting now comes with heavy expectations. In ultra competitive East Asia, parents invest heavily in their children’s schooling. This ‘educational arms race’ is so incredibly stressful that one child is increasingly seen as enough.

Since writing those two essays, I’ve come to Hong Kong for qualitative research. Have my interviews affirmed my priors?