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Jun 29, 2023Liked by Alice Evans

A couple of points.

First, the US CPI does include the cost of housing, though it uses imputed rents, so rising prices show up with a lag. But over the long term, that lag should not matter. What's really going on is that housing markets across the country are so different that the average price increase doesn't look like much over the long term. But what's really going on are astronomical housing price increases in large coastal cities, moderate to large price increases in large Sun Belt cities, and price increases corresponding to population growth in most of the country, which includes declining real prices in a lot of the Rust Belt and small deindustrialized towns.

Still, the broader point stands.

About the other point -- where high housing prices encourage married mothers to work. I'm not disagreeing, but there is the possibility that causality goes in the other direction. Married mothers working meant higher household incomes and increased demand for larger, nicer houses. The other major phenomenon driving housing patterns and prices during this time period was desegregation and "white flight," where large numbers of people (originally mostly white people but now also a lot of ethnic minorities) moved from cities to suburbs in search of "better" schools for their children. This has only accelerated in recent years, where increases in house prices in local markets are highly correlated with local school test scores.

So to summarize: the alternative explanation is demand-driven, where higher family incomes drive demand for more expensive houses.

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author

Thank you! I edited the piece to take on board that point about CPI. Now as for the causal direction, this has been tested. See here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094119014000424

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Great piece that gives another angle to thinking about so many topics - housing, dual income households, child investment and women in the work place. I really wish these types of pieces and discussions were taught or shown in intro to economics classes, because it shows just how insightful the field is and how much variety there is in it!

I had a question regarding another channel that might impact the decision of women to work (and I wasn't able to find anything quickly on a google scholar search) - does access to healthcare via the work place matter for women's decision? Mainly I'm thinking about the decision to have children, but I understand that if your partner has healthcare via a workplace, women would be eligible for maternal healthcare.

Another thing that popped to my mind while writing this: do college expenses matter? That is families choose to become a dual working household, because they may need to accumulate savings to pay for college for their children.

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Well, there are number of ways this could play out:

If government provides childcare that might push up work, among working-class women who can't otherwise afford it. It may not affect college educated women that much though.

If government provides health care (or stops a pandemic), this could make for a healthier working class, more able to work. Think of all the people who are not working due to long covid. Or social democracies could lower work commitment, by covering wants.

Social democracies may also play an important role in providing excellent services as standard, then maybe you're less inclined to work long hours to get superstar treatment (nice airport lounges).

But I think economic aspirations are malleable, and we can be influenced by our peers. That's why I think inequality may fuel work commitment, we want to keep up with others, so buy cars on credit.

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