Excellent work. Also, not to mention the threat of even more radical Islamism due to the growing population and discontent. There needs to be a serious, censorship-free, comprehensive study about the upsides and downsides of subsidizing population growth in Africa via foreign aid and charity/NGOs.
Bill Gates made the same comments repeatedly, only to be met by comments that he's a racist from various African intellectuals and Western leftists (Vox, The Guardian) and some misguided economists talking about Africa's demographic dividend. This is a serious problem.
> Analysing Demographic and Health Surveys of the 20 most populous African countries, David Evans and colleagues find that “one in four adolescent girls report having experienced violence, and one in seven report having experienced sexual violence in the previous year”.
I noticed from the link (pp. 30) that Rwanda has the highest rate of sexual violence, about same as DR Congo. DR Congo is known for having unusually low state capacity even by SSA standards but Rwanda is conversely known for having high state capacity. Just an interesting observation.
The 40yr old women quote seems surreal compared to how people in the west react to these stuff. The image of an African or Indian women accepting rape as sth natural as the sun setting and a young women in my media feed seething with rage because someone complimented her on the street make me want to laugh and cry at the same time.
I'm sorry, but this article lies in a deeply outdated Malthusian frame.
Are you claiming it was a mistake to provide the aid which led to a fall in mortality, because state capacity could not keep up? Quite aside from the highly disturbing moral implications, this is not even correct.
By all metrics - life expectancy, literacy, years in school, vaccination rates - state capacity is vastly higher than it was at independence. Fertility is down almost without exception.
Surely you are aware that these two are linked - one of the best ways to reduce fertility is to expand education for girls. Which Africa has been doing; the continent is now close to gender parity in primary and secondary education.
I think this is simply pointing out that institutions: law enforcement, education, public investment, etc.., take a long time to build, and they must be built from within.
I believe it would be to the great benefit of sub-Saharan Africa to reduce the size of its states, bringing the leaders closer to the people, by increasing the number of countries from ~50 to ~100 or even ~200. Other parts of the world could benefit from this too (middle east, north America, south Asia). The success of such an idea would depend entirely on where exactly to draw new borders, but the goal should be to make increasing social trust easier.
As for targeting population growth directly probably one of the most effective ways (which I got from reading some of your other work) is to increase the use of cellphones as a way of getting alternative viewpoints into women's (and men's) lives. (Alongside the obvious stuff, like increasing access to contraception.)
In a lot of sub-Saharan African countries per capita economic growth has been stagnant, but that wouldn't have been the case if population growth was much lower.
Excellent work. Also, not to mention the threat of even more radical Islamism due to the growing population and discontent. There needs to be a serious, censorship-free, comprehensive study about the upsides and downsides of subsidizing population growth in Africa via foreign aid and charity/NGOs.
Bill Gates made the same comments repeatedly, only to be met by comments that he's a racist from various African intellectuals and Western leftists (Vox, The Guardian) and some misguided economists talking about Africa's demographic dividend. This is a serious problem.
> Analysing Demographic and Health Surveys of the 20 most populous African countries, David Evans and colleagues find that “one in four adolescent girls report having experienced violence, and one in seven report having experienced sexual violence in the previous year”.
I noticed from the link (pp. 30) that Rwanda has the highest rate of sexual violence, about same as DR Congo. DR Congo is known for having unusually low state capacity even by SSA standards but Rwanda is conversely known for having high state capacity. Just an interesting observation.
The 40yr old women quote seems surreal compared to how people in the west react to these stuff. The image of an African or Indian women accepting rape as sth natural as the sun setting and a young women in my media feed seething with rage because someone complimented her on the street make me want to laugh and cry at the same time.
I'm sorry, but this article lies in a deeply outdated Malthusian frame.
Are you claiming it was a mistake to provide the aid which led to a fall in mortality, because state capacity could not keep up? Quite aside from the highly disturbing moral implications, this is not even correct.
By all metrics - life expectancy, literacy, years in school, vaccination rates - state capacity is vastly higher than it was at independence. Fertility is down almost without exception.
Surely you are aware that these two are linked - one of the best ways to reduce fertility is to expand education for girls. Which Africa has been doing; the continent is now close to gender parity in primary and secondary education.
I think this is simply pointing out that institutions: law enforcement, education, public investment, etc.., take a long time to build, and they must be built from within.
Future Nobel prize winner, for the same reason as Acemoglu!
Thanks Alice another important point Without state capacity no good life as we all like it (where we -still- have it)
I believe it would be to the great benefit of sub-Saharan Africa to reduce the size of its states, bringing the leaders closer to the people, by increasing the number of countries from ~50 to ~100 or even ~200. Other parts of the world could benefit from this too (middle east, north America, south Asia). The success of such an idea would depend entirely on where exactly to draw new borders, but the goal should be to make increasing social trust easier.
As for targeting population growth directly probably one of the most effective ways (which I got from reading some of your other work) is to increase the use of cellphones as a way of getting alternative viewpoints into women's (and men's) lives. (Alongside the obvious stuff, like increasing access to contraception.)
In a lot of sub-Saharan African countries per capita economic growth has been stagnant, but that wouldn't have been the case if population growth was much lower.